Human Performance Modelling
What can a Top Elite Cyclist produce?
Maximum power for 1 hour is 6,4 W/kg (www.secretofcycling.com)
Stage 21 TT is 29,3 km so will approximately take about 35 min
That means that riders can produce a little more power than over 1 hour: + 3-4 %
Fatigue from the last 3 weeks will decrease this power by approximately 8-10%
So that means that they can ride approximately 6 W/kg at this TT
Absolute power for the riders is:
Tom Dumoulin (70 kg): 420W
Vicenzo Nibali (65 kg): 390W
Thibaut Pinot (63 kg): 378W
Nairo Quintana (58 kg): 348W
Ilnur Zakarin (68 kg): 408W
For all riders we take CdA value of 0.21
Small riders (Quintana) may have lower value, bigger riders (Dumoulin) may have higher value
They are all 100% motivated to suffer and reach Peak Performance
Tom Dumoulin is one of the best Timetrial riders of the world and can probably Peak 1-3% more than the others
What will they ride??
Tom Dumoulin: 34 min and 36 sec
Best Bike Split file: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/66803
Thibaut Pinot: 35 min and 45 sec (+ 1 min 09 sec)
Best Bike Split file: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/66804
Vicenzo Nibali: 35 min and 21 sec (+ 45 sec)
Best Bike Split file: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/66805
Nairo Quintana: 36 min and 05 sec (+ 1 min 29 sec)
Beste Bike Split file: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/client/66801
Ilnur Zakarin: 34 min and 59 sec (+ 23 sec)
Best Bike Split file: https://www.bestbikesplit.com/public/66806
(Taken into account that the GPX course file could be a little bit too long…..)
So with these results Tom Dumoulin would be the winner of the Giro 2017
Now let’s see what theory and practice have in common !!!
Enjoy the race !!!