Predicting the final TT stage of the Giro 2017

Human Performance Modelling


What can a Top Elite Cyclist produce?



Maximum power for 1 hour is 6,4 W/kg (

Stage 21 TT is 29,3 km so will approximately take about 35 min

That means that riders can produce a little more power than over 1 hour: + 3-4 %

Fatigue from the last 3 weeks will decrease this power by approximately 8-10%

So that means that they can ride approximately 6 W/kg at this TT

Absolute power for the riders is:

Tom Dumoulin (70 kg): 420W

Vicenzo Nibali (65 kg): 390W

Thibaut Pinot (63 kg): 378W

Nairo Quintana (58 kg): 348W

Ilnur Zakarin (68 kg): 408W


CdA value:

For all riders we take CdA value of 0.21

Small riders (Quintana) may have lower value, bigger riders (Dumoulin) may have higher value


Mental state:

They are all 100% motivated to suffer and reach Peak Performance


Real Timetrialers:

Tom Dumoulin is one of the best Timetrial riders of the world and can probably Peak 1-3% more than the others


What will they ride??


Tom Dumoulin: 34 min and 36 sec

Best Bike Split file:

Thibaut Pinot: 35 min and 45 sec (+ 1 min 09 sec)

Best Bike Split file:

Vicenzo Nibali: 35 min and 21 sec (+ 45 sec)

Best Bike Split file:

Nairo Quintana: 36 min and 05 sec (+ 1 min 29 sec)

Beste Bike Split file:

Ilnur Zakarin: 34 min and 59 sec (+ 23 sec)

Best Bike Split file:

(Taken into account that the GPX course file could be a little bit too long…..)


So with these results Tom Dumoulin would be the winner of the Giro 2017


Now let’s see what theory and practice have in common !!!


Enjoy the race !!!



Guido Vroemen





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